{"id":14084,"date":"2024-08-06T00:55:24","date_gmt":"2024-08-06T00:55:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diigital.press\/?p=11117"},"modified":"2024-08-06T00:55:24","modified_gmt":"2024-08-06T00:55:24","slug":"forecaster-whos-rightly-predicted-presidential-winners-over-40-years-reveals-likely-outcome-of-trump-harris-matchup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/otrxio.com\/?p=14084","title":{"rendered":"Forecaster Who\u2019s Rightly Predicted Presidential Winners Over 40 Years Reveals Likely Outcome of Trump-Harris Matchup"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Professor Allen Lichtman, the renowned \u201cNostradamus\u201d of presidential elections, has revealed his latest forecast for the upcoming November contest.<\/p>\n<p>His latest prediction has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, as he\u2019s stated Vice President Kamala Harris is currently on track to secure victory in her race against Trump for the White House.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">NEW: Forecaster who has predicted almost every election since 1984, says Kamala Harris will likely win the election in November.<\/p>\n<p>Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 &amp; Biden in 2020, says his forecasts point to a Harris win.<\/p>\n<p>Lichtman uses &#8217;13 keys&#8217; to\u2026\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/US6LMgvWlH\">pic.twitter.com\/US6LMgvWlH<\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"quads-ad2\" class=\"quads-location quads-ad2\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6008135905137257\" data-ad-slot=\"5049254967\" data-adsbygoogle-status=\"done\" data-ad-status=\"unfilled\"><\/p>\n<div id=\"aswift_3_host\"><iframe id=\"aswift_3\" tabindex=\"0\" title=\"Advertisement\" src=\"https:\/\/googleads.g.doubleclick.net\/pagead\/ads?gdpr=0&amp;client=ca-pub-6008135905137257&amp;output=html&amp;h=174&amp;slotname=5049254967&amp;adk=432632022&amp;adf=2615701397&amp;pi=t.ma~as.5049254967&amp;w=695&amp;abgtt=6&amp;fwrn=4&amp;lmt=1722904975&amp;rafmt=11&amp;format=695x174&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fconservativesnews.com%2Fforecaster-whos-rightly-predicted-presidential-winners-over-40-years-reveals-likely-outcome-of-trump-harris-matchup%2F2024%2F07%2F31%2F&amp;wgl=1&amp;uach=WyJXaW5kb3dzIiwiMTAuMC4wIiwieDg2IiwiIiwiMTI3LjAuNjUzMy44OSIsbnVsbCwwLG51bGwsIjY0IixbWyJOb3QpQTtCcmFuZCIsIjk5LjAuMC4wIl0sWyJHb29nbGUgQ2hyb21lIiwiMTI3LjAuNjUzMy44OSJdLFsiQ2hyb21pdW0iLCIxMjcuMC42NTMzLjg5Il1dLDBd&amp;dt=1722904958394&amp;bpp=346&amp;bdt=1533&amp;idt=3426&amp;shv=r20240731&amp;mjsv=m202407300101&amp;ptt=9&amp;saldr=aa&amp;abxe=1&amp;cookie=ID%3Decaea56632a9cc6d%3AT%3D1700238000%3ART%3D1722904935%3AS%3DALNI_MarxRwvmEtMzhib3DyXR7yRPXW8Qg&amp;gpic=UID%3D00000cdc43356c90%3AT%3D1700238000%3ART%3D1722904935%3AS%3DALNI_MbUZVkIFKbSChV2VpPVisoXxTM2WA&amp;eo_id_str=ID%3D57d2d2831b64956b%3AT%3D1722813499%3ART%3D1722904935%3AS%3DAA-AfjbOhBHNPJTB41AV2QeFM84L&amp;prev_fmts=0x0%2C1200x280%2C770x280&amp;nras=1&amp;correlator=7196915382704&amp;frm=20&amp;pv=1&amp;rplot=4&amp;u_tz=300&amp;u_his=1&amp;u_h=864&amp;u_w=1536&amp;u_ah=824&amp;u_aw=1536&amp;u_cd=24&amp;u_sd=1.125&amp;dmc=8&amp;adx=334&amp;ady=1826&amp;biw=1688&amp;bih=820&amp;scr_x=0&amp;scr_y=0&amp;eid=44759876%2C44759927%2C44759837%2C31085722%2C95331689%2C95331832%2C95334524%2C95334830%2C95337868%2C31085792%2C31084185%2C95336267%2C31078663%2C31078665%2C31078668%2C31078670&amp;oid=2&amp;pvsid=3552693077336392&amp;tmod=2053503574&amp;uas=1&amp;nvt=1&amp;ref=https%3A%2F%2Fconservativesnews.com%2F&amp;fc=1920&amp;brdim=0%2C0%2C0%2C0%2C1536%2C0%2C0%2C0%2C1707%2C820&amp;vis=1&amp;rsz=%7C%7CevEbr%7C&amp;abl=CS&amp;pfx=0&amp;fu=128&amp;bc=31&amp;bz=0&amp;td=1&amp;tdf=0&amp;psd=W251bGwsbnVsbCwibGFiZWxfb25seV81IiwxXQ..&amp;nt=1&amp;ifi=4&amp;uci=a!4&amp;btvi=2&amp;fsb=1&amp;dtd=16949\" name=\"aswift_3\" width=\"695\" height=\"0\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" data-google-container-id=\"a!4\" aria-label=\"Advertisement\" data-google-query-id=\"CIvnsJiR34cDFSZpHQkdJygwaA\" data-load-complete=\"true\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p><\/ins><\/div>\n<p>\u2014 Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg)\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CollinRugg\/status\/1818042724542779855?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 29, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>Lichtman, a professor at American University, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since Ronald Reagan\u2019s reelection in 1984.<\/p>\n<p>His model, which employs thirteen key factors to assess the political landscape, has been updated to reflect the recent dramatic shift in the Democratic Party\u2019s lineup.<\/p>\n<p>With President Joe Biden\u2019s unexpected withdrawal from the race, Harris has emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee.<\/p>\n<p>This sudden change has altered the dynamics of the election, but Lichtman\u2019s model suggests it may ultimately work in the Democrats\u2019 favor.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention,\u201d Lichtman stated on X.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSee my assessment below on the 13 Keys Tracker on where The Keys stand NOW.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention.<br \/>\nSee my assessment below below on the 13 Keys Tracker on where The Keys stand NOW. Please listen to our LIVE show on 7\u201325\u201324, linked in the comments below, where we detail every Key.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/pJpkpa3SzW\">pic.twitter.com\/pJpkpa3SzW<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman)\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AllanLichtman\/status\/1816847990566666389?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 26, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Several factors are currently tipping the scales in Harris\u2019 favor, per Lichtman.<\/p>\n<p>He stated that the absence of a primary challenger, limited threat from third-party candidates, and a strong economy in both short and long-term metrics are all positive indicators for the Democratic ticket.<\/p>\n<p>Lichtman also argues that the White House has avoided major policy changes, and Harris is not facing any significant scandals or social unrest.<\/p>\n<p>The historian noted, however, that the transition from Biden to Harris has cost the Democrats one advantage: the incumbency factor.<\/p>\n<p>Lichtman explained that with Harris and Trump set to face off, this race is essentially open now.<\/p>\n<p>The Democrats have managed to mitigate potential damage by quickly rallying behind Harris despite the setback of Biden dropping out, Daily Mail\u00a0outlined.<\/p>\n<p>The party has avoided a chaotic open primary or last-minute entries from other presidential hopefuls, maintaining a united front.<\/p>\n<p>In an interview with\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.c-span.org\/video\/?537292-4\/allan-lichtman-book-predicting-president-campaign-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">C-SPAN<\/a>, Lichtman emphasized the tentative nature of his assessment.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI have not made a final prediction. I\u2019ve said I will make it after the Democratic convention,\u201d he clarified. \u201cBut I have said for months, and I continue to say a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThat could happen, but a lot would have to change.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">According to my assessment of where the Keys stand now as detailed on the 13 Keys Tracker. See the charting below. Please listen to our LIVE show on 7\u201325\u201324, linked in the comments below, where we detail every Key and the criteria for turning them.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/D4Pv9rNzbV\">pic.twitter.com\/D4Pv9rNzbV<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman)\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AllanLichtman\/status\/1816665999552446773?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 26, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The professor also suggested that Harris\u2019 nomination could have positive effects on several key factors.<\/p>\n<p>It may\u00a0reduce\u00a0support for third-party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. and potentially quell social unrest.<\/p>\n<p>Lichtman observed, \u201cIt has a mixed result, Biden\u2019s dropping out, and the presumptive nomination of Harris. But it doesn\u2019t fundamentally change my assessment that a lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>While Lichtman\u2019s model paints an optimistic picture for the Democrats, Daily Mail\u00a0reported\u00a0that recent polls tell a different story.<\/p>\n<p>The race remains extremely close, with an average of the latest polls showing Trump leading by less than two points.<\/p>\n<p>Battleground state polls also indicate a tight contest between Trump and Harris.<\/p>\n<p>There are signs that Harris\u2019 nomination has energized the Democratic base, however.<\/p>\n<p>Daily Mail explained that recent polls show a jump in enthusiasm among Democrats and an increase in Harris\u2019 approval ratings since becoming the presumptive nominee.<\/p>\n<p>As the election approaches, all eyes will be on Lichtman\u2019s official prediction, expected next month.<\/p>\n\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Professor Allen Lichtman, the renowned \u201cNostradamus\u201d of presidential elections, has revealed his latest forecast for the upcoming November contest. His latest prediction has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, as he\u2019s stated Vice President Kamala Harris is currently on track to secure victory in her race against Trump for the White House. NEW: Forecaster who [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11118,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14084","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/otrxio.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14084","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/otrxio.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/otrxio.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otrxio.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otrxio.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14084"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/otrxio.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14084\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otrxio.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11118"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/otrxio.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14084"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otrxio.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14084"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otrxio.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14084"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}